CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, once a vocal skeptic of Bitcoin, publicly acknowledged on Wednesday, August 20, 2025, that his 2018 prediction that the cryptocurrency would plummet to $100 before reaching $100,000 was misguided. With Bitcoin now trading at $113,260 after peaking at $124,128, Rogoff outlined three key miscalculations in a post on X, as reported by Cointelegraph.
“I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” Rogoff wrote, reflecting on his expectation of a swift global crackdown that never materialized. He also admitted underestimating Bitcoin’s ability to compete with fiat currencies, particularly in the $20 trillion global underground economy, where it has become a preferred transaction medium. “Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice,” he noted, per Cointelegraph.
Additionally, Rogoff highlighted an unforeseen factor: regulators holding significant crypto assets despite apparent conflicts of interest. “Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence,” he stated. This shift follows Bitcoin’s 1,000% surge since 2018, driven by institutional adoption, including Harvard’s $116 million investment in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.
Posts on X, like those from @BitcoinNewsCom, noted the irony of Harvard’s endowment embracing Bitcoin while Rogoff misjudged its trajectory. Despite his admission, Rogoff remains skeptical, citing ongoing regulatory debates. The crypto market’s evolution, fueled by fiat devaluation and global demand, continues to challenge traditional economic forecasts.
Source: Cointelegraph
